The ‘War of the Stars’ for space travel has begun. British born 'eccentric billionaire' Richard Branson, chairman of the Virgin Group, succeeded in the world's first commercial space travel on July 11 (local time).
The world's richest man, Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, and Elon Musk, the "geek genius," Tesla CEO are also rushing into the space travel business, raising expectations that the market will rapidly expand. It is predicted that the potential demand for space travel will reach 2.4 million people, and the market size will reach 3 billion dollars (about 3.4 trillion won) by 2030. However, many point out that it will be difficult for a space travel boom to occur in the near future due to safety and cost concerns.
70-year-old 'geek billionaire' flew into space
Branson flew into space at 7:40 a.m. western time in the United States on the same day at the Spaceport Space Center in New Mexico aboard the commercial spacecraft operator Virgin Galactic's 'VSS Unity' spaceship.
With over 500 spectators watching, Unity took off aboard the mother ship, VMS Eve, and separated from Eve at an altitude of 8.5 miles (13.6 km) and entered space at a speed of Mach 3. Chairman Branson returned to Earth after reaching an altitude of 55 miles (88.5 km) and experiencing a state of “microgravity” with almost no gravity for about 4 minutes. The flight time was about 1 hour. It is the culmination of 17 years since Chairman Branson created Virgin Galactic.
A total of six people were on board, including Chairman Branson, two Virgin Galactic pilots and three executives. President Branson, 70, wrote in his flight log before boarding, “Astronaut Double oh one. License to thrill,” reminiscent of '007' James Bond.
With this flight, Chairman Branson succeeded in subduing the baseline in the “three-way battle of space travel” between billionaire entrepreneurs. Founder Bey Joss will travel to space on July 20, the 52nd anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing, aboard Blue Origin's space travel ship, the New Shepard, along with his brother Mark and 82-year-old woman Wally Funk. Blue Origin is a space exploration company founded by Bezos. Founder Bezos recently retired as Amazon CEO and will focus more on the space business. On the same day, he posted on Instagram that he wanted to join the 'Space Travel Club' as soon as possible.
SpaceX, founded by CEO Musk, is working with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to promote the 'Inspiration 4' project, which sends four civilian travelers to the International Space Station (ISS). Musk watched Branson's space flight at the New Mexico launch site on the same day.
Chairman Branson's space flight today is a kind of promotional strategy to promote space travel. Virgin Galactic plans to start full commercial service next year after two more test flights. So far, about 600 space travel tickets have been pre-ordered for about $250,000 (about 280 million won) per ticket. Virgin Galactic said ticket buyers were from more than 60 countries.
Founder Bezos and CEO Musk are in a battle with Chairman Branson to keep pace with space travel. Bezos' founder recently stressed that Blue Origin's spacecraft will fly higher than Branson's spacecraft. The European International Aeronautics and Space Federation defines space as space only when it crosses the 'karman line', which is an altitude of 100 km. Virgin Galactic countered that NASA and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) classify altitudes above 80 km as space.
"There's a big difference between getting to space and going to (farther) orbit," Musk said in a recent tweet. Musk is also pushing for civilians to fly into space and move to Mars.
Popularization is in progress due to safety and cost
"It's the experience of a lifetime," Branson called on Unity's online broadcast. "It was all magic," he said, popping champagne on stage after a successful flight. "Welcome to the dawn of a new space age."
President Branson was born in London, England. At the age of fifteen, he dropped out of high school and started his business by publishing the student magazine ‘Student’. In 1972, he founded the mail-order record label Virgin Records, which was a huge success and grew the Virgin Group into a 40-affiliated multinational corporation, including airline Virgin Atlantic and carrier Virgin Mobile.
Adventure and bouncing behavior are his trademarks. Branson nearly lost his life on 76 adventures, including being rescued by the Coast Guard while crossing the Atlantic in a hot air balloon in 1987. In order to promote Virgin Mobile, he performed in the middle of New York with the performers of the musical 'Full Monty' in a costume that looked nothing like the naked body. His life motto is, "The brave will not live forever, but the cautious will not live at all."
Branson founded Virgin Galactic in 2004 and expanded his business into space travel. After he decided to go aboard the spaceship himself, he built himself up for years with tennis lessons four times a week and centrifugal training. In an interview with the British Telegraph, Branson said, "I'm a fairly fearless person.
The Associated Press reported that Branson became the second person in his 70s to reach space after astronaut John Glenn, who boarded the space shuttle at the age of 77 in 1988.
It is evaluated that Chairman Branson's flight today opened the era of commercial space travel. Although the space travel business is still unfamiliar, it is analyzed that the potential demand is not small.
In August of last year, US investment bank Cowen estimated that there were about 2.4 million potential users for 'quasiorbital travel', which travels to the border of space like Branson did. It also found that 39% of those with a net worth of $5 million or more are willing to pay $250,000 or more for a ticket for a semi-orbital trip.
UBS predicted that the size of the space industry will grow to $23 billion (about 26.4 trillion won) by 2030, of which the space travel industry will reach $3 billion (about 3.4 trillion won).
Branson's success in space travel could help the market grow faster. This is because space travel ticket prices are likely to rise further. Virgin Galactic originally sold space tickets for $200,000, then raised the price to $250,000. However, after a crash occurred on a test flight in 2014, ticket sales were suspended for a while, and sales resumed after six years last year, signaling a price increase. The Washington Post reported that the market is expecting the ticket price to reach $500,000, which is twice as expensive as it is now.
Bezos' founder's Blue Origin hasn't announced ticket prices yet, but on July 20, a ticket to space travel with Bezos was sold at auction for $28 million.
However, the reality is that space travel is difficult to popularize in a short period of time. Safety is the biggest stumbling block for space travel, as one accident can cost you one's life. There are painful memories of the actual disaster. In 1985, NASA designed the Space Teacher Program, which conducted remote classes from spacecraft, and carried civilian teachers aboard the space shuttle Challenger. However, the Challenger exploded shortly after launch, killing all on board. NASA has not carried civilians on the spacecraft for the next 15 years.
Another burden is that travelers have to endure different speeds and gravity than usual. Blue Origin said that a space traveler would have to withstand three times the gravity of the ground for two minutes when the airship went out into space, and 5.5 times the gravity for a few seconds when it returned to Earth. Travelers were also limited to heights and weights of 5 to 6.5 feet (152 to 198 cm) and 110 to 223 pounds (49 to 101 kg), respectively.
The cost burden is also high. The New York Times pointed out that only those who are willing to pay the price of a decent house in the United States for a brief stay in space will be able to buy space tickets. "As technology advances and space tourism increases, costs will decrease, but the extent and timing of the decline is unclear," said Douglas Haned, an analyst at investment bank Bernstein.
